Oilers at Bruins 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸4

Boston Bruins

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Boston Bruins 4-1. The Bruins scored first; the Oilers answered. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 19:53 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were EDM 26, BOS 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Bruins win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Jaroslav Halak stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Smith (35 saves, .972), 2. Connor McDavid (1 G), 3. Darnell Nurse (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Smith35 saves, .972
★★
C. McDavid1 G
★★★
D. Nurse1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	09	210	27	426
BOS	16	09	021	136

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

D. Pastrnak(31)PPG
T. Krug (23), B. Marchand (40)
slapxG 0.11win prob +8 pts
0-1
3:10

2nd period

G. Haas(4)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
1-1
7:41
D. Nurse(3)
L. Draisaitl (41)
wristxG 0.02win prob +24 pts
2-1
19:53

3rd period

C. McDavid(23)
Z. Kassian (15), E. Bear (10)
wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
3-1
1:48
L. Draisaitl(24)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.78
4-1
19:51

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

3:05Leon Draisaitl · Elbowingdrawn by Torey Krug2 min
15:26Gaetan Haas · Slashingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min

2nd

2:25Sean Kuraly · Trippingdrawn by Gaetan Haas2 min
12:03Zdeno Chara · Holdingdrawn by Joakim Nygard2 min

3rd

4:02Ethan Bear · High stickingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BOS

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, 2nd 19:53 — EDM 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.2 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att BOS

1 G · 2.2 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.23 G
All situations: 1 G2.2; 1.43 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.30 G
Power play: 1 G0.6; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

42%58%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.83 – 2.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 36; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 0/2
Power play: 1/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 31
Hits: 29; 14
Blocked shots: 14; 11
Giveaways: 8; 6
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
77O. KlefbomD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.05	0	2	0	—	28:22
25D. NurseD	1	0	1	+3	3	0.05	4	2	0	—	24:57
29L. DraisaitlC	1	1	2	+2	2	0.90	1	0	2	68	22:54
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.04	4	2	0	—	21:57
74E. BearD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.03	2	1	2	—	21:44
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	0	0	+2	0	0.09	0	1	0	0	21:24
97C. McDavidC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.46	0	0	0	22	19:56
18J. NealL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	6	1	0	—	17:09
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	+2	1	0.22	4	1	0	—	16:39
15J. ArchibaldR	0	0	0	0	1	0.66	3	0	0	—	13:24
44Z. KassianR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.11	1	0	0	—	13:20
23R. SheahanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	0	75	13:08
39A. ChiassonR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.30	1	0	0	—	12:31
4K. RussellD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	0	0	—	11:51
91G. HaasC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.04	1	0	2	29	10:30
16J. KhairaL	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	2	0	—	10:24
82C. JonesD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	08:00
10J. NygardL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.10	0	1	0	—	07:45

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(W)	36	35	1	.972	2.22	+1.22	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 44@1this game
Feb 192@1OTFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score