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Oilers at Sabres
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Final/OTTV MSG-B, SNW·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-2 in overtime, Jack Eichel scoring at 1:09. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Eichel's goal at 1:09 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 2.3, BUF 2.6; shots on goal were EDM 27, BUF 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Linus Ullmark stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Curtis Lazar (1 G), 2. Jack Eichel (1 G), 3. Zemgus Girgensons.

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Lazar1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Girgensons

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM214080500227
BUFBUF150101813326

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    R. Sheahan(4)
    J. Archibald (3), A. Larsson (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:06
  2. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(9)
    K. Yamamoto (1), L. Draisaitl (40)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    7:00
  3. BUF
    C. Lazar(3)
    M. Johansson (13)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    8:39

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(13)
    Z. Bogosian (4), V. Olofsson (19)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +26 pts
    2-2
    3:53

Overtime

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(26)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.34win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    1:09

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

2nd

  • 3:56EDMZack Kassian · Hookingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min
  • 8:55BUFMarcus Johansson · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

  • 11:01EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

OT

  • 1:09EDMOscar Klefbom · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Jack Eichel0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalEDM goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Eichel, OT 1:09 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.39J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.34S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.30C. Lazar · Goal · xG 0.23C. Lazar · On goal · xG 0.13C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.08C. Lazar · Missed · xG 0.07J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.06J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.02C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01C. Lazar · Missed · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.6 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsBUF
2.32 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM47%53%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.43

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
26
65%
Faceoffs
35%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
19
Hits
19
9
Blocked shots
5
9
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77O. KlefbomD000+130.15020—27:16
25D. NurseD000-120.03110—24:41
74E. BearD000+120.05010—23:45
4K. RussellD000-120.05320—22:12
29L. DraisaitlC011+120.180106821:05
97C. McDavidC000040.740005320:52
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC101+110.4000210020:48
18J. NealL000020.13300—19:01
44Z. KassianR000000.00502—17:30
56K. YamamotoR011+120.18300—16:35
6A. LarssonD011010.00100—12:09
23R. SheahanC101-110.100007811:31
16J. KhairaL000-100.00100—11:27
39A. ChiassonR000010.01100—11:25
15J. ArchibaldR011-110.20110—11:14
91G. HaasC000000.000005009:27
84W. LagessonD000010.01010—09:22
10J. NygardL000020.12000—09:07
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(O)26233.8852.56-0.4461:09

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).