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Maple Leafs at Flames
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Calgary Flames
▸4
FinalTV SNW, TSN4·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Flames answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Frolik's goal at 1:59 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals were close — TOR 3.1, CGY 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 34, CGY 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected; David Rittich stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Johnny Gaudreau (2 G), 2. David Rittich (32 saves, .941), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    D. Rittich32 saves, .941
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR110113011234
CGYCGY190837424

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(13)
    M. Marner (19), T. Barrie (10)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:24
  2. CGY
    T. Hamonic(2)
    S. Monahan (17), M. Giordano (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    16:23

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(5)
    J. Tavares (12), C. Ceci (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:06

3rd period

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(8)
    M. Backlund (11)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    0:19
  2. CGY
    M. Frolik(4)
    T. Rieder (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +24 pts
    2-3
    1:59
  3. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(9)
    T. Hamonic (5), S. Monahan (18)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    2:49

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·CGY 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:15TORJustin Holl · Trippingdrawn by Tobias Rieder2 min

2nd

  • 10:05CGYMark Jankowski · Trippingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

3rd

  • 4:26CGYElias Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 4:51CGYTravis Hamonic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalTOR goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Michael Frolik, 3rd 1:59 — CGY 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.40A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.27A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.24T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.19S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.13M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.11J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.10S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09T. Hamonic · Goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.07M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.04M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.04D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.04T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.04S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.03M. Frolik · Goal · xG 0.03M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.02S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.00S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY4 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCGY
3.12 G
All situations
4 G3.0
2.52 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR58%42%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCGY
34
Shots on goal
24
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
22
12
Blocked shots
18
18
Giveaways
19
11
Takeaways
19

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR112-150.51010—24:53
94T. BarrieD011020.13110—23:39
91J. TavaresC112-150.750204423:05
11Z. HymanL000020.292005021:47
44M. RiellyD000020.02030—21:34
34A. MatthewsC000010.130004421:09
8J. MuzzinD000-220.10310—20:04
88W. NylanderR000-140.590005018:46
3J. HollD000-230.05202—17:20
24K. KapanenR000020.07200—17:08
23T. DermottD000000.00110—16:54
83C. CeciD011000.02000—16:28
15A. KerfootC000000.000202913:38
65I. MikheyevR000050.25010—11:44
47P. EngvallL000000.00100—11:09
19J. SpezzaC000-100.000007508:31
61N. PetanC000-100.14000008:24
46P. AbergL000-110.01000—05:33
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)24204.8332.58-1.4256:14

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).