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Senators at Red Wings
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Detroit Red Wings
3
FinalTV FS-D, TSN5·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 10:22 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were OTT 33, DET 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Anders Nilsson stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.6 goals below expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Duclair (2 G, 1 A), 2. Anders Nilsson (35 saves, .921), 3. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Duclair2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    A. Nilsson35 saves, .921
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11331703433
DETDET210012116338

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(8)
    T. Chabot (11)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:08
  2. DET
    R. Fabbri(4)
    V. Filppula (8), F. Hronek (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:57
  3. DET
    V. Filppula(3)SHG
    D. Helm (2)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    18:32

2nd period

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(9)
    L. Brown (4)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:00
  2. OTT
    J. Pageau(12)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    5:57
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(7)
    A. Duclair (4)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    10:22

3rd period

  1. DET
    A. Mantha(12)
    F. Hronek (8), A. Athanasiou (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +8 pts
    4-3
    17:14

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:29OTTRon Hainsey · Trippingdrawn by Darren Helm2 min
  • 4:34DETValtteri Filppula · Hookingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 6:16DETMadison Bowey · Interferencedrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 17:21DETTaro Hirose · Interferencedrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 19:25OTTColin White · Roughingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min

2nd

  • 5:20OTTVladislav Namestnikov · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min
  • 5:20DETAnthony Mantha · Slashingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 13:01OTTLogan Brown · Hookingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min
  • 16:17DETBrendan Perlini · Slashingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalOTT goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, 2nd 10:22 — OTT 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.17V. Filppula · Goal · xG 0.15B. Perlini · On goal · xG 0.14D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.13R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.11A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.11A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.11F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.10A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.09F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.08D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cholowski · On goal · xG 0.06R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.06V. Filppula · Missed · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hirose · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04B. Perlini · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Athanasiou · Missed · xG 0.03A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cholowski · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02A. Mantha · Goal · xG 0.02D. McIlrath · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.01D. McIlrath · On goal · xG 0.01D. McIlrath · On goal · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.00A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.00R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDET
2.94 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.14 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT58%42%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.83 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDET
33
Shots on goal
38
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/4
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
21
Hits
21
3
Blocked shots
10
10
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD000-100.00200—22:30
2D. DeMeloD000+310.03020—22:04
28C. BrownR000-150.39100—22:02
72T. ChabotD011+210.19100—21:23
44J. PageauC101+140.262006520:15
81R. HainseyD000010.02302—18:45
7B. TkachukL101+260.651005017:58
10A. DuclairL213+230.44000—17:18
74M. BorowieckiD000-120.06400—17:05
71C. TierneyC000-100.030008816:47
13N. PaulL000-100.001104516:30
90V. NamestnikovC000030.23002014:32
36C. WhiteC000010.100024513:34
29C. GoloubefD000000.00300—12:50
21L. BrownC011+120.130021711:18
63T. EnnisR000010.08100—10:01
14M. VeronneauR000-110.13100—08:35
78F. ChlapikC000-120.11100008:33
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Nilsson(W)38353.9212.40-0.6060:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).