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Senators at Islanders
NHL

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

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Ottawa Senators
1
New York Islanders
▸4
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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 4-1. The Senators scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Bardreau's goal at 15:34 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were OTT 28, NYI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.3 goals below expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cal Clutterbuck (1 G, 1 A), 2. Casey Cizikas (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cole Bardreau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    C. Clutterbuck1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    C. Cizikas1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    C. Bardreau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT18010010128
NYINYI11011329432

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Pageau(6)SHG
    V. Namestnikov (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    7:44
  2. NYI
    C. Clutterbuck(1)
    C. Cizikas (2), D. Toews (7)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:23

2nd period

  1. NYI
    C. Bardreau(1)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +21 pts
    1-2
    15:34

3rd period

  1. NYI
    C. Cizikas(1)SHG
    C. Clutterbuck (3), S. Mayfield (2)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-3
    10:00
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(6)
    N. Dobson (2), A. Pelech (3)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +4 pts
    1-4
    10:40

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·NYI 18 PIM

1st

  • 6:01OTTArtem Anisimov · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

  • 4:54NYIScott Mayfield · Holdingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 15:34OTTMark Borowiecki · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Cole Bardreau0 min

3rd

  • 5:21OTTDylan DeMelo · High stickingdrawn by Ross Johnston2 min
  • 8:10NYIAdam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 18:11NYIRoss Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:11NYIRoss Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:11NYIRoss Johnston · Misconductdrawn by Brady Tkachuk10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalOTT goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Cole Bardreau, 2nd 15:34 — NYI 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Bardreau · Goal · xG 0.23D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.18A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.18O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.15A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.14C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.11C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.10C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.09R. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.09C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.08D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.08D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Dal Colle · Missed · xG 0.07D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.06R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.05J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.05C. Bardreau · On goal · xG 0.05S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.04C. Clutterbuck · Goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.00R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNYI
2.01 G
All situations
4 G2.7
1.30 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.11 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT37%63%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNYI
28
Shots on goal
32
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
18
27
Hits
27
16
Blocked shots
10
14
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000020.06110—26:49
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00030—22:08
81R. HainseyD000-230.09100—19:34
90V. NamestnikovC011020.27000019:06
10A. DuclairL000020.27000—18:55
63T. EnnisR000-120.32410—18:42
7B. TkachukL000-230.184203318:05
28C. BrownR000-110.00020—17:37
2D. DeMeloD000-130.09302—16:51
44J. PageauC101+130.221002116:38
13N. PaulL000-120.035205716:13
71C. TierneyC000030.240104416:03
29C. GoloubefD000-100.00410—14:42
74M. BorowieckiD000+110.01030—14:26
51A. AnisimovC000-110.171025014:01
9B. RyanR000-100.06000—10:20
64J. BeaudinC000-100.0030010008:06
89M. BoedkerL000000.00000—07:42
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)32284.8752.74-1.2660:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).