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Sabres at Capitals
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Washington Capitals
▸6
FinalTV NBCSWA, MSG-B·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-1. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chandler Stephenson's goal at 6:59 of the first period, which took the Capitals' chances from 66% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were BUF 30, WSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 28 of 34 (.824), 2.5 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jakub Vrana (2 G), 2. Tom Wilson (1 G, 2 A), 3. Brendan Leipsic (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Vrana2 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    T. Wilson1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    B. Leipsic1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0161905130
WSHWSH41118115634

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    J. Vrana(5)
    T. Wilson (4)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:17
  2. WSH
    C. Stephenson(2)
    T. Boyd (2), B. Leipsic (4)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:59
  3. WSH
    J. Vrana(6)
    M. Kempny (3), T. Wilson (5)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    9:29
  4. WSH
    B. Leipsic(1)
    T. Boyd (3), R. Gudas (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +6 pts
    0-4
    10:44

2nd period

  1. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(1)
    R. Dahlin (10), E. Rodrigues (1)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    10:40
  2. WSH
    T. Wilson(5)
    M. Kempny (4)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    16:53

3rd period

  1. WSH
    T. Oshie(8)
    M. Kempny (5), A. Ovechkin (8)
    tip-inxG 0.09
    1-6
    13:43

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·WSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:42WSHDmitry Orlov · Elbowingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

3rd

  • 11:10WSHDmitry Orlov · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 18:24BUFJohan Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalBUF goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Chandler Stephenson, 1st 6:59 — WSH 66% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.27T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.23J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.23A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.22J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.20C. Stephenson · Goal · xG 0.18T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.16J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.16T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.13E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.13J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.11J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.10L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.10T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.09T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.08L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.07N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.07B. Leipsic · Goal · xG 0.06J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.06T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.06N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.05N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.05L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.05N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.04R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.02G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.02M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.02G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kempny · Missed · xG 0.02J. Siegenthaler · Missed · xG 0.01N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.01C. Hagelin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.01N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.00R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH6 G · 3.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWSH
2.31 G
All situations
6 G3.5
2.21 G
Even strength
6 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF32%68%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 3.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWSH
30
Shots on goal
34
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
23
11
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
33C. MillerD000-210.11000—21:37
55R. RistolainenD000-230.06220—21:01
19J. McCabeD000-100.00110—20:23
58J. GilmourD000-210.10120—19:56
26R. DahlinD011-230.10400—17:43
90M. JohanssonL000-200.052101317:39
10H. JokiharjuD101-150.10010—17:33
53J. SkinnerL000-230.32000—17:17
9J. EichelC000-340.630004717:01
23S. ReinhartC000-310.00010016:32
68V. OlofssonL000-210.07000—15:52
17V. SobotkaC000-130.161002714:44
43C. ShearyL000020.37210—14:19
21K. OkposoR000-100.002005014:14
22J. LarssonL000010.042125013:50
37C. MittelstadtC000000.000006713:46
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.16310012:59
71E. RodriguesC011010.090006011:58
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)34286.8243.50-2.5060:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).