Skip to content
Avalanche at Panthers
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Florida Panthers
4
Final/OTTV FS-F, ALT·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Florida Panthers 5-4 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 3:03. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 3:03 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 4.2 to 3.3; shots on goal were COL 41, FLA 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 40 of 44 (.909); Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (2 G), 3. Andre Burakovsky (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1133180713541
FLAFLA31711101204444

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(2)
    M. Weegar (3), A. Ekblad (5)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:32
  2. FLA
    F. Vatrano(1)SHG
    D. Malgin (2), A. Stralman (2)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    8:26
  3. COL
    J. Donskoi(3)
    I. Cole (2), J. Compher (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    10:57
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(3)
    A. Barkov (6), J. Brown (1)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    14:57

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Nieto(2)
    P. Bellemare (1), M. Calvert (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    11:23
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(3)
    J. Donskoi (2), N. Zadorov (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    11:55
  3. FLA
    B. Connolly(3)
    A. Stralman (3)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +20 pts
    3-4
    14:05
  4. COL
    A. Burakovsky(4)
    J. Donskoi (3), I. Cole (3)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +20 pts
    4-4
    14:21

Overtime

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)
    A. Burakovsky (4), S. Girard (3)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    3:03

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:24FLAJoshua Brown · High sticking double minordrawn by Matt Calvert4 min

2nd

  • 2:40FLAColton Sceviour · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:37COLNazem Kadri · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 17:34COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min

3rd

  • 4:28COLMatt Calvert · Trippingdrawn by Brett Connolly2 min
  • 8:18COLJoonas Donskoi · Holdingdrawn by Frank Vatrano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalCOL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 3:03 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.27F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.25M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.24J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.20B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.19V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.19A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.16J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.16J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.14E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.14A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.13B. Connolly · Goal · xG 0.12M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.11F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.11F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.11A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.10V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.10V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.10V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.10J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.09N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.09F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.08B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.08M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.08F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.07J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.05M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.05M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.03B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.01
FLA4 G · 4.2 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsFLA
3.35 G
All situations
4 G4.2
2.45 G
Even strength
3 G3.2
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.20 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL37%63%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 4.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsFLA
41
Shots on goal
44
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
17
13
Blocked shots
9
10
Giveaways
18
17
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD000050.11140—25:44
49S. GirardD011-210.03100—21:45
29N. MacKinnonC101050.701006421:36
16N. ZadorovD011+110.03510—21:31
96M. RantanenR000-130.31102—20:21
28I. ColeD022+420.10030—19:18
72J. DonskoiR123+230.240325019:01
92G. LandeskogL000-150.391004018:56
91N. KadriC000+220.183126918:34
27R. GravesD000+100.00000—14:57
95A. BurakovskyL213+240.32100—14:31
8C. MakarD000-200.00110—14:09
37J. CompherL011+130.362002513:34
11M. CalvertL011-110.0200210013:15
41P. BellemareL011-110.010005012:25
83M. NietoL101-130.35000—12:07
22C. WilsonC000010.11100010:25
17T. JostC000-110.021002009:00
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)44404.9094.21+0.2163:03

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).