Islanders at Jets 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸3

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-1. The Jets scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Barzal's goal at 19:43 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.1 to 2.2; shots on goal were NYI 26, WPG 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (2 G), 2. Semyon Varlamov (32 saves, .970), 3. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Barzal2 G
★★
S. Varlamov32 saves, .970
★★★
N. Ehlers1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	05	212	19	326
WPG	116	08	09	133

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

N. Ehlers(3)PPG
N. Pionk (4), V. Heinola (3)
wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
0-1
13:12

2nd period

M. Barzal(2)PPG
J. Bailey (3), D. Toews (3)
slapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
1-1
7:41
M. Barzal(3)
A. Lee (1), J. Boychuk (2)
wristxG 0.03win prob +24 pts
2-1
19:43

3rd period

J. Bailey(3)EN
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.43win prob +5 pts
3-1
19:33

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

11:28Adam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
17:41Michael Dal Colle · Holdingdrawn by Ville Heinola2 min

2nd

7:25Dmitry Kulikov · Trippingdrawn by Michael Dal Colle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Mathew Barzal, 2nd 19:43 — NYI 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.2 xG · 37 att WPG

1 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.22 G
All situations: 1 G3.1; 1.71 G
Even strength: 0 G2.5; 0.11 G
Power play: 1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

26%74%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 3.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 33; 40%
Faceoffs: 60%; 1/1
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 23
Hits: 23; 15
Blocked shots: 6; 11
Giveaways: 17; 2
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	2	4	0	—	23:02
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	3	2	2	—	21:33
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.26	1	0	0	44	20:53
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	0	3	0	—	20:31
13M. BarzalC	2	0	2	+1	3	0.24	0	1	0	40	19:47
25D. ToewsD	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	18:44
12J. BaileyR	1	1	2	+1	3	0.46	0	1	0	50	18:12
55J. BoychukD	0	1	1	+1	4	0.12	3	0	0	—	18:06
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.10	1	0	0	—	17:48
27A. LeeL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.19	1	0	0	20	17:24
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	—	15:40
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	14:12
10D. BrassardC	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	3	1	0	38	14:11
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:50
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	1	0.31	4	0	0	—	13:11
14T. KuhnhacklR	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	12:08
28M. Dal ColleL	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	1	2	—	11:31
32R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	05:33

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40S. Varlamov(W)	33	32	1	.970	3.13	+2.13	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Oct 61@4Final
Oct 173@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score