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Red Wings at Predators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸5
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV FS-D, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Glendening's goal at 9:24 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.3 to 2.5; shots on goal were DET 28, NSH 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Jimmy Howard stopped 39 of 42 (.929), 0.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Mantha (1 G, 2 A), 2. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Duchene (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. Mantha1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET2901039528
NSHNSH010215117342

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(1)
    D. Larkin (1), A. Mantha (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:29
  2. DET
    A. Mantha(1)
    T. Bertuzzi (1)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    11:40

2nd period

  1. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(2)PPG
    M. Duchene (4), R. Johansen (2)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    4:40
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(2)
    M. Ekholm (2), M. Duchene (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    12:58

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(1)
    A. Mantha (2), T. Bertuzzi (2)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +27 pts
    3-2
    4:02
  2. NSH
    M. Ekholm(1)
    K. Turris (1), C. Jarnkrok (1)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +27 pts
    3-3
    4:48
  3. DET
    L. Glendening(1)
    V. Filppula (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +32 pts
    4-3
    9:24
  4. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(2)EN
    L. Glendening (1), D. DeKeyser (1)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.75win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    18:58

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:48DETAnthony Mantha · High stickingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 4:30DETAnthony Mantha · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 7:07NSHMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 13:41NSHAustin Watson · Interferencedrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDET goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Luke Glendening, 3rd 9:24 — DET 48% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.19V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.17C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.16M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.15F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.13C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.10M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.09K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.07K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.07R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.06Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.05R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.02M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.00R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.5 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsNSH
3.34 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.14 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET34%66%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsNSH
28
Shots on goal
42
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
9
8
Giveaways
9
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25M. GreenD000+120.09010—22:48
71D. LarkinC112+420.280004422:10
22P. NemethD000030.07120—21:40
17F. HronekD000010.07000—21:31
39A. ManthaR123+350.46014—21:26
65D. DeKeyserD011+100.44030—21:25
59T. BertuzziL224+420.82000—19:48
51V. FilppulaC011000.470004417:25
21D. CholowskiD000+230.08210—16:34
41L. GlendeningC112+120.272105014:21
8J. AbdelkaderL000000.00010—14:09
81F. NielsenC000-120.081105014:04
83T. DaleyD000+220.13020—13:43
67T. HiroseL000000.01010—13:40
73A. ErneL000-110.01430—12:29
61J. de la RoseL000010.041105011:14
43D. HelmC000020.02100010:18
70C. EhnC000-100.00100009:22
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35J. Howard(W)42393.9292.48-0.5259:43

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).