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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Sabres scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 5:24 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.6 to 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 34, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Frederik Andersen stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Frederik Gauthier (1 G, 1 A), 2. Kasperi Kapanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jack Eichel (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    F. Gauthier1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    K. Kapanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11611018334
TORTOR06417110533

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(20)PPG
    S. Reinhart (39), R. Dahlin (27)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    19:07

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(35)
    J. Muzzin (22), T. Dermott (13)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    3:48
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(30)
    K. Kapanen (21), A. Johnsson (17)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    5:24
  3. TOR
    F. Gauthier(3)
    J. Gardiner (27), T. Moore (3)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    5:52
  4. TOR
    T. Ennis(9)
    F. Gauthier (9), M. Rielly (46)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    13:07
  5. BUF
    S. Reinhart(18)PPG
    J. Skinner (20), R. Dahlin (28)
    slapxG 0.22win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    17:25

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(21)
    J. Pominville (12), R. Ristolainen (33)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    0:09
  2. TOR
    K. Kapanen(19)SHG
    C. Brown (16)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    3-5
    17:42

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 13:10TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 19:00TORserved by J. Tavares · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 1:39BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 15:28TORJake Muzzin · Interferencedrawn by Conor Sheary2 min
  • 16:56TORNikita Zaitsev · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

3rd

  • 15:53TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 5:24 — TOR 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.22M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.22A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.19K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.11K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.11T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.03P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.03P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03F. Gauthier · Goal · xG 0.03P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 2.9 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.63 G
All situations
5 G2.9
2.61 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
1.02 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF61%39%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.57 – 2.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
33
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/5
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
10
35
Hits
29
15
Blocked shots
20
7
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011-320.03540—26:11
26R. DahlinD022-140.20100—24:06
53J. SkinnerL011-140.610004023:38
4Z. BogosianD000030.10330—23:32
9J. EichelC202-140.563105723:22
19J. McCabeD000-100.12420—19:46
23S. ReinhartC112-240.73200018:44
29J. PominvilleR011040.43100—17:21
71E. RodriguesC000-120.231004317:09
43C. ShearyL000-110.10300—15:05
48M. HunwickD000-200.00010—13:39
28Z. GirgensonsC000-230.21100012:50
22J. LarssonL000-210.022203611:54
21K. OkposoR000000.03220—11:40
6M. ScandellaD000-100.00100—11:39
17V. SobotkaC000010.053004011:25
20S. WilsonC000-100.00200009:16
72T. ThompsonC000-110.15102008:40
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)21192.9051.98-0.0232:11
40C. Hutton1293.7500.90-2.1025:52

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).