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Jets at Sabres
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres

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Winnipeg Jets
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
1
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Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Blake Wheeler's goal at 16:05 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were WPG 29, BUF 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Carter Hutton stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Connor Hellebuyck (35 saves, .972), 2. Blake Wheeler (1 G, 1 A), 3. Andrew Copp (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck35 saves, .972
  2. ★★
    WPG
    B. Wheeler1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    A. Copp1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0111929329
BUFBUF01411309136

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. WPG
    A. Copp(5)SHG
    B. Little (22), T. Myers (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    3:01
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(18)
    R. Dahlin (25), J. Skinner (17)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    12:01

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Wheeler(12)
    J. Morrissey (25), M. Scheifele (37)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +41 pts
    2-1
    16:05
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(28)EN
    B. Wheeler (55), J. Trouba (27)
    wristxG 0.70win prob +6 pts
    3-1
    19:53

Penalties

WPG 10 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 14:27WPGJoe Morrow · High stickingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 16:34WPGDustin Byfuglien · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 19:38BUFLawrence Pilut · Holdingdrawn by Bryan Little2 min

2nd

  • 1:11WPGMark Scheifele · Hookingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 9:57WPGBryan Little · Slashingdrawn by Lawrence Pilut2 min
  • 12:59WPGBen Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWPG goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Blake Wheeler, 3rd 16:05 — WPG 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.26J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.23T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.18S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.13J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.12K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.12V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.11J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08V. Sobotka · Missed · xG 0.08R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.07J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.06J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF1 G · 3.3 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsBUF
2.82 G
All situations
1 G3.3
1.31 G
Even strength
1 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG24%76%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 3.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
36
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/1
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
2
23
Hits
15
17
Blocked shots
10
6
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
33D. ByfuglienD000+220.08212—23:29
44J. MorrisseyD011010.01010—22:52
8J. TroubaD011+110.03340—22:42
81K. ConnorL000020.71010—22:22
55M. ScheifeleC112+230.730122021:24
57T. MyersD011+110.03340—20:02
26B. WheelerR112+230.24110—19:10
7B. ChiarotD000040.08302—16:04
18B. LittleC011020.111126015:52
17A. LowryC000+120.243205715:39
13B. TanevL000040.20100—15:07
28J. RoslovicC000010.03100015:07
70J. MorrowD000000.00102—13:37
29P. LaineL000010.02100—10:56
9A. CoppC101010.070007510:55
85M. PerreaultC000000.04210009:15
82M. AppletonC000000.09000007:57
48B. LemieuxL000010.04100—07:31
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)36351.9723.34+2.3459:59

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).