Blues at Panthers 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸3

Florida Panthers

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Florida Panthers 3-2. The Blues came back from two goals down. The Panthers led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vince Dunn's goal at 16:07 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were STL 34, FLA 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.5 goals saved above expected; James Reimer stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Vince Dunn (1 G), 2. Aleksander Barkov (1 G), 3. Henrik Borgstrom (1 G).

Three stars

★
V. Dunn1 G
★★
A. Barkov1 G
★★★
H. Borgstrom1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	05	010	319	334
FLA	111	05	18	224

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

H. Borgstrom(5)PPG
F. Vatrano (11), A. Ekblad (13)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
0-1
18:55

3rd period

A. Barkov(19)PPG
M. Hoffman (20), K. Yandle (33)
snapxG 0.51win prob +12 pts
0-2
0:30
C. Parayko(9)
O. Sundqvist (7)
wrap-aroundxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
1-2
3:05
R. O'Reilly(20)
B. Schenn (22), V. Tarasenko (18)
slapxG 0.39win prob +32 pts
2-2
11:09
V. Dunn(6)
Unassisted
snapxG 0.13win prob +42 pts
3-2
16:07

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

15:41Mike Matheson · Holdingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
17:21Jaden Schwartz · Trippingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min

2nd

12:57Oskar Sundqvist · High stickingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
19:58Jay Bouwmeester · Cross checkingdrawn by Colton Sceviour2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: Vince Dunn, 3rd 16:07 — STL 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.7 xG · 43 att FLA

2 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.73 G
All situations: 2 G2.5; 3.23 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.00 G
Power play: 2 G0.9; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

61%39%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.14 – 2.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 24; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/1
Power play: 2/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 15
Hits: 23; 15
Blocked shots: 7; 9
Giveaways: 19; 9
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
19J. BouwmeesterD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	0	2	—	23:26
27A. PietrangeloD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.66	0	4	0	—	22:03
55C. ParaykoD	1	0	1	+1	5	0.13	2	3	0	—	21:20
90R. O'ReillyC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.51	0	1	0	32	20:54
10B. SchennC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.27	3	0	0	100	19:47
4C. GunnarssonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	18:56
91V. TarasenkoR	0	1	1	+1	4	0.45	1	0	0	—	18:20
6J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.21	0	0	0	—	16:28
70O. SundqvistC	0	1	1	+2	1	0.09	0	2	2	50	16:23
29V. DunnD	1	0	1	+1	4	0.37	1	2	0	—	16:07
17J. SchwartzL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	2	—	15:59
21T. BozakC	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	1	0	0	64	15:53
7P. MaroonL	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	15:14
20A. SteenL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	0	—	15:07
12Z. SanfordL	0	0	0	+2	3	0.38	0	1	0	—	13:28
18R. ThomasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	0	0	0	09:30
49I. BarbashevL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	09:25
62M. MacEachernL	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	4	0	0	—	07:36

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	24	22	2	.917	2.50	+0.50	59:58

Season series

STL leads 2-0

Dec 113@4Final
Feb 53@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score