Jets at Islanders 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Winnipeg Jets

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New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the New York Islanders 3-1. The Islanders scored first; the Jets answered. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Lowry's goal at 4:01 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 74%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.6, NYI 2.5; shots on goal were WPG 24, NYI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Adam Lowry (1 G), 2. Jacob Trouba (1 G), 3. Anders Lee (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Lowry1 G
★★
J. Trouba1 G
★★★
A. Lee1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	03	015	36	324
NYI	08	012	18	128

Scoring

4 goals

3rd period

A. Lee(10)
B. Nelson (10), J. Boychuk (4)
wristxG 0.12win prob +24 pts
0-1
1:33
J. Trouba(3)PPG
B. Wheeler (31), K. Connor (15)
slapxG 0.05win prob +22 pts
1-1
3:39
A. Lowry(5)
B. Tanev (6), M. Perreault (6)
wristxG 0.14win prob +27 pts
2-1
4:01
N. Ehlers(9)EN
B. Wheeler (32), C. Hellebuyck (1)
wristxG 0.94win prob +3 pts
3-1
19:57

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

1:08Patrik Laine · Cross checkingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
10:43Scott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min

3rd

1:58Mathew Barzal · Holding the stickdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min
8:57Brandon Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
9:32Anders Lee · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Adam Lowry, 3rd 4:01 — WPG 48% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 29 att NYI

1 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 1.31 G
Even strength: 1 G2.3; 0.41 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

33%67%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.59 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 28; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 1/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 17
Hits: 24; 17
Blocked shots: 16; 6
Giveaways: 12; 6
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8J. TroubaD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.14	1	1	0	—	28:01
55M. ScheifeleC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.17	2	0	0	75	23:12
57T. MyersD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	22:45
27N. EhlersL	1	0	1	+1	2	1.04	0	1	0	—	22:17
26B. WheelerR	0	2	2	+1	2	0.28	1	2	0	100	21:28
7B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	3	0	—	21:28
83S. NikuD	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	0	—	19:11
29P. LaineL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	1	1	2	—	18:44
81K. ConnorL	0	1	1	-1	2	0.27	0	0	0	—	17:57
18B. LittleC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	46	16:58
6C. SchillingD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	0	—	14:27
13B. TanevL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	1	2	—	13:19
85M. PerreaultC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	0	12:20
17A. LowryC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.22	2	0	0	50	12:18
62N. NogierD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	10:06
28J. RoslovicC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	70	07:32
82M. AppletonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	07:17
48B. LemieuxL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	06:40

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	28	27	1	.964	2.49	+1.49	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 43@1this game
Mar 285@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score