Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Wild
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Minnesota Wild
3
FinalTV FS-N+, CBC·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Minnesota Wild 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 16:40 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 23, MIN 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 38 of 41 (.927); Devan Dubnyk stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (38 saves, .927), 2. Jason Zucker (1 G), 3. Mitch Marner (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    F. Andersen38 saves, .927
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Zucker1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR281728523
MINMIN111112118341

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(13)PPG
    M. Marner (31), M. Rielly (20)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    6:06
  2. TOR
    T. Ennis(4)
    P. Lindholm (7), T. Dermott (5)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    12:19
  3. MIN
    E. Staal(10)
    R. Suter (17), M. Granlund (14)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:29

2nd period

  1. MIN
    J. Greenway(4)
    J. Eriksson Ek (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:17
  2. TOR
    Z. Hyman(5)
    M. Marner (32), J. Gardiner (10)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    14:38

3rd period

  1. MIN
    J. Zucker(8)
    M. Granlund (15)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +31 pts
    3-3
    9:38
  2. TOR
    N. Kadri(8)
    C. Brown (6), A. Johnsson (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +42 pts
    4-3
    16:40
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(6)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.90win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:04

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·MIN 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:21MINMathew Dumba · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Marleau2 min
  • 13:38TORNikita Zaitsev · Cross checkingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min

3rd

  • 0:32TORZach Hyman · High stickingdrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 4:20TORJake Gardiner · Trippingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalTOR goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 3rd 16:40 — TOR 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.20M. Koivu · Missed · xG 0.14J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.14C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.14J. Greenway · Goal · xG 0.13M. Koivu · On goal · xG 0.12E. Staal · Goal · xG 0.12E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12E. Fehr · Missed · xG 0.11M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.10E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.10J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.08J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.08J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.08J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.08M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.07J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.07E. Staal · Missed · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.05M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.05E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.05J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.05C. Coyle · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.04J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.03M. Koivu · Missed · xG 0.03J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.03N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.02E. Staal · Missed · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.01M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.01G. Pateryn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.00M. Koivu · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN3 G · 3.2 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsMIN
2.24 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.13 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR19%81%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.31 – 3.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsMIN
23
Shots on goal
41
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
8
Hits
20
16
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011030.08120—23:58
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00032—23:36
2R. HainseyD000000.00020—21:45
51J. GardinerD011+120.05112—20:47
34A. MatthewsC101020.190205818:07
91J. TavaresC000040.310206417:53
16M. MarnerR022000.00000—17:38
24K. KapanenR000000.05000—17:38
11Z. HymanL202041.150026717:04
23T. DermottD011+100.00020—16:47
12P. MarleauC000000.0000010016:07
28C. BrownR011000.02000—14:08
43N. KadriC101020.221003612:57
92I. OzhiganovD000010.03200—12:33
26P. LindholmC011+120.011105012:30
18A. JohnssonL011000.01010—11:34
32J. LeivoL000+120.04000—09:46
63T. EnnisR101+110.06200—09:12
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)41383.9273.17+0.1760:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).