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Senators at Stars
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
4
Dallas Stars
▸6
FinalTV FS-SW, TSN5·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Ottawa Senators 6-4. The Senators scored first; the Stars answered. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Taylor Fedun's goal at 18:48 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were OTT 33, DAL 54. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 48 of 53 (.906), 1.3 goals below expected; Anton Khudobin stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Miro Heiskanen (2 G), 2. Devin Shore (2 A), 3. Taylor Fedun (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    D. Shore2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Fedun1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT18113212433
DALDAL119224311654

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(10)
    B. Ryan (9), T. Chabot (20)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:05
  2. DAL
    J. Benn(8)
    T. Seguin (15), A. Radulov (9)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:22

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(7)PPG
    T. Chabot (21), B. Ryan (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    10:02
  2. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(3)
    A. Radulov (10), M. Janmark (4)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    12:45
  3. DAL
    T. Fedun(1)
    D. Shore (7), R. Hintz (1)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +23 pts
    2-3
    18:48

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(4)
    M. Janmark (5), D. Shore (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    4:40
  2. DAL
    B. Comeau(2)
    E. Lindell (7), J. Dickinson (5)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +5 pts
    2-5
    6:12
  3. OTT
    M. Lajoie(6)
    M. Duchene (18)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +3 pts
    3-5
    10:36
  4. OTT
    Z. Smith(4)
    B. Ryan (11), M. Duchene (19)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    4-5
    13:54
  5. DAL
    G. Bayreuther(1)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.44win prob +7 pts
    4-6
    17:50

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:07OTTMax McCormick · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

2nd

  • 6:59OTTBobby Ryan · Interferencedrawn by Devin Shore2 min
  • 9:42DALGavin Bayreuther · Trippingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 15:06OTTBen Harpur · High stickingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

3rd

  • 2:24DALRoope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 18:31OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 18:31DALEsa Lindell · Roughingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 18:31OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 18:31DALRoman Polak · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalOTT goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Taylor Fedun, 2nd 18:48 — DAL 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Bayreuther · Goal · xG 0.44M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.41M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.32D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.22T. Fedun · Goal · xG 0.19J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.19M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.16T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.15T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.13R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.11T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.08J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.08J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.08R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.08A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.08R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Pitlick · Missed · xG 0.06J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.06J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.05R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.04B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.03D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.03A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.02B. Comeau · Goal · xG 0.02D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.02T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.01T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.01G. Bayreuther · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.00G. Bayreuther · On goal · xG 0.00R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL6 G · 4.9 xG · 69 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDAL
2.44 G
All situations
5 G4.9
1.63 G
Even strength
5 G3.2
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT28%72%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 3.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDAL
33
Shots on goal
54
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
20
21
Blocked shots
18
11
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD022-100.00010—25:41
5C. CeciD000020.02310—25:22
95M. DucheneC022-150.210204824:06
2D. DeMeloD000-120.00310—20:11
15Z. SmithC101+110.143144119:29
67B. HarpurD000-220.06002—19:14
18R. DzingelC101030.420605017:56
7B. TkachukL101-350.76100—17:19
9B. RyanR033020.07002—16:38
89M. BoedkerL000-220.07000—16:30
79D. BathersonR000-130.24230—15:53
71C. TierneyC000-220.160004015:28
58M. LajoieD101-120.04010—15:15
61M. StoneR000-320.21010—12:30
83C. JarosD000000.00310—10:22
10T. PyattL000000.000106010:10
56M. PaajarviL000000.00010—08:50
17M. McCormickL000000.00212—05:11
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)53485.9063.70-1.3057:55

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).