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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan DeMelo's goal at 1:00 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 48, OTT 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.7 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 46 of 48 (.958), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (46 saves, .958), 2. Thomas Chabot (2 A), 3. Jason Pominville (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Anderson46 saves, .958
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Pominville1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF012013223248
OTTOTT11221218432

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(5)PPG
    M. Boedker (5), C. Wideman (3)
    snapxG 0.34win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    6:55

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. DeMelo(2)
    T. Chabot (11), M. Duchene (8)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:00
  2. OTT
    C. White(3)PPG
    M. Stone (5), T. Chabot (12)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    14:47

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Pominville(6)
    J. Eichel (9), M. Scandella (2)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    0:59
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(7)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (4), J. Eichel (10)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    3:55
  3. OTT
    B. Ryan(3)EN
    M. Stone (6), D. DeMelo (5)
    tip-inxG 0.92win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:40

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:42BUFJake McCabe · Slashingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 5:39BUFMarco Scandella · Holdingdrawn by Maxime Lajoie2 min
  • 12:27OTTChris Wideman · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 4:22BUFJack Eichel · Hookingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 7:42OTTDylan DeMelo · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 12:58BUFKyle Okposo · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:00BUFPatrik Berglund · High stickingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min

3rd

  • 2:22OTTMark Stone · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 7:14OTTBobby Ryan · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan DeMelo, 2nd 1:00 — OTT 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.92T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.35R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.34R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.16R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.15C. White · On goal · xG 0.13R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.11A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.11C. White · Goal · xG 0.09C. White · On goal · xG 0.09M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.09C. White · On goal · xG 0.08A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.08C. White · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.06M. McCormick · Missed · xG 0.04T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wideman · Missed · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · Goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wideman · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02C. Wideman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
2.62 G
All situations
3 G3.5
1.41 G
Even strength
1 G0.8
1.21 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF57%43%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
48
Shots on goal
32
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/4
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
14
5
Giveaways
12
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011-130.15320—26:28
9J. EichelC022070.400126723:21
53J. SkinnerL101060.560105021:55
4Z. BogosianD000030.03420—19:57
6M. ScandellaD011030.04102—18:50
29J. PominvilleR101+150.15100—18:03
19J. McCabeD000010.01142—18:01
23S. ReinhartC000-140.4000010017:28
26R. DahlinD000-130.07120—17:28
37C. MittelstadtC000030.190005715:28
17V. SobotkaC000-120.051102514:56
43C. ShearyL000-120.20000—14:29
81R. ElieL000010.15300—12:47
8C. NelsonD000010.02120—12:28
22J. LarssonL000000.000004312:14
21K. OkposoR000-210.08002—12:13
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.01100010:00
10P. BerglundC000020.09102006:07
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)31283.9032.26-0.7458:42

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).