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Sabres at Predators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸7
Nashville Predators
4
FinalTV FS-TN, MSG-B·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Nashville Predators 7-4. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 6-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 17:18 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 36, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.4 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Reinhart (3 G), 2. Jack Eichel (5 A), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart3 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel5 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11451517736
NSHNSH2929018436

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Pominville(13)
    Z. Girgensons (8), J. Eichel (33)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:43
  2. NSH
    P. Subban(16)PPG
    R. Josi (38), R. Johansen (37)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    1-1
    2:59
  3. NSH
    A. Watson(13)
    M. Ekholm (23), N. Bonino (13)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    17:00

2nd period

  1. NSH
    K. Turris(16)
    C. Smith (25), K. Fiala (25)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    2:00
  2. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(22)PPG
    J. Eichel (34), R. Ristolainen (31)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    5:45
  3. BUF
    K. Okposo(12)
    E. Rodrigues (14), C. Mittelstadt (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    7:20
  4. NSH
    N. Bonino(12)
    R. Ellis (20), A. Watson (5)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +19 pts
    3-4
    12:50
  5. BUF
    S. Reinhart(21)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (32), J. Eichel (35)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +10 pts
    4-4
    15:04
  6. BUF
    S. Reinhart(22)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (34), J. Eichel (36)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +22 pts
    5-4
    17:18
  7. BUF
    K. Okposo(13)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (33), J. Eichel (37)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    6-4
    19:00

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(23)
    R. O'Reilly (35)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +5 pts
    7-4
    8:17

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NSH 37 PIM

1st

  • 2:07BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Bitetto2 min
  • 13:41NSHRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

2nd

  • 4:37NSHKyle Turris · Hookingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 14:09NSHScott Hartnell · Boardingdrawn by Victor Antipin5 min
  • 14:09NSHScott Hartnell · Game misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 4:56BUFZemgus Girgensons · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 5:32BUFBenoit Pouliot · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 5:58NSHKevin Fiala · High stickingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 9:24NSHMike Fisher · Trippingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 15:36BUFBrendan Guhle · Interferencedrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 19:08NSHAustin Watson · Slashingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 19:08NSHAustin Watson · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 19:08NSHAustin Watson · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalBUF goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 2nd 17:18 — BUF 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.26R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.21R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.18E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.13R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.10A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.10K. Turris · Goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.10R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.09R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.09P. Subban · Goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.07R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bonino · Goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03M. Fisher · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.01K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01A. Bitetto · Missed · xG 0.01A. Bitetto · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 2.5 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNSH
3.07 G
All situations
4 G2.5
1.53 G
Even strength
3 G1.0
1.54 G
Power play
1 G1.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF59%41%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNSH
36
Shots on goal
36
39%
Faceoffs
61%
4/9
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
37
12
Hits
20
10
Blocked shots
8
8
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD033000.04110—28:05
90R. O'ReillyC123+150.410103822:45
6M. ScandellaD000-100.00300—22:26
8C. NelsonD000010.02110—19:58
15J. EichelC055-150.520101119:37
23S. ReinhartC303+150.62120018:06
45B. GuhleD000+120.03002—17:07
20S. WilsonC000+120.07110016:14
21K. OkposoR202040.39002—16:07
29J. PominvilleR101-130.37000—15:40
71E. RodriguesC011020.140005014:48
22J. LarssonL000020.021207114:30
37C. MittelstadtC011010.171003813:59
41J. FalkD000010.02210—12:39
28Z. GirgensonsC011-110.0610210012:11
67B. PouliotL000010.09002—10:50
93V. AntipinD000000.00000—09:05
13N. BaptisteR000010.08000—09:01
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(W)36324.8892.55-1.4560:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).