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Stars at Capitals
NHL

Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Washington Capitals
▸4
FinalTV FS-SW+, NBCSWA·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Dallas Stars 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Carlson's goal at 15:01 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 52% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.9 to 2.5; shots on goal were DAL 27, WSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Kari Lehtonen stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.1 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Carlson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alex Ovechkin (1 G, 2 A), 3. John Klingberg (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Klingberg2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL14213010327
WSHWSH05316111432

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(39)PPG
    A. Radulov (39), J. Klingberg (53)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    16:04

2nd period

  1. WSH
    T. Oshie(16)
    L. Eller (19), A. Ovechkin (36)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:07
  2. WSH
    M. Niskanen(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    5:32
  3. DAL
    A. Radulov(26)
    J. Klingberg (54), J. Benn (41)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    11:48
  4. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(44)PPG
    J. Carlson (46), T. Oshie (25)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    13:41
  5. DAL
    J. Benn(27)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    18:15

3rd period

  1. WSH
    J. Carlson(15)
    L. Eller (20), A. Ovechkin (37)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +35 pts
    3-4
    15:01

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·WSH 10 PIM

1st

  • 8:31DALAlexander Radulov · Boardingdrawn by Michal Kempny2 min
  • 15:12WSHNicklas Backstrom · Trippingdrawn by John Klingberg2 min
  • 19:00WSHNicklas Backstrom · High stickingdrawn by Dan Hamhuis2 min

2nd

  • 1:50WSHAlex Ovechkin · Interferencedrawn by Gemel Smith2 min
  • 9:43WSHMichal Kempny · Interferencedrawn by Antoine Roussel2 min
  • 13:22DALserved by A. Radulov · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 13:48WSHBrooks Orpik · Roughingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
  • 13:48DALRadek Faksa · Slashingdrawn by Brooks Orpik2 min
  • 18:02DALAlexander Radulov · High stickingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalDAL goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: John Carlson, 3rd 15:01 — WSH 52% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.28T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.22T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.22C. Stephenson · Missed · xG 0.21A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.21C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.18T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.16T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.15B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.15T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.12L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.12N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.09J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.07N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.07T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.07D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.05D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Smith-Pelly · Missed · xG 0.02N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.02C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · Goal · xG 0.01T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.01
WSH4 G · 2.9 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsWSH
2.53 G
All situations
4 G2.9
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL43%57%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsWSH
27
Shots on goal
32
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/4
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
29
Hits
36
11
Blocked shots
21
12
Giveaways
14
12
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD022+220.15010—25:57
47A. RadulovR112030.34114—23:10
23E. LindellD000+110.00410—22:39
91T. SeguinC101+170.660004722:12
13M. JanmarkC000-230.25000020:30
14J. BennL112+250.542103320:05
12R. FaksaC000020.182125619:48
29G. PaterynD000-200.00110—19:09
2D. HamhuisD000-300.00010—18:35
28S. JohnsD000000.02320—16:23
17D. ShoreC000-110.122105015:59
18T. PitlickC000000.00310013:27
6J. HonkaD000000.00000—12:25
40R. ElieL000-100.00400—10:57
21A. RousselL000010.04300—10:01
16J. DickinsonC000-100.00200007:52
11C. McKenzieL000020.17200—07:47
46G. SmithC000000.0000010007:08
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lehtonen(L)32284.8752.88-1.1259:39

Season series

WSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).