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Flames at Avalanche
NHL

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ALT, SN360·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 5-2. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Zadorov's goal at 9:32 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 34% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were CGY 32, COL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. David Rittich stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.8 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tyson Barrie (1 G, 1 A), 3. Semyon Varlamov (30 saves, .938).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    T. Barrie1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    S. Varlamov30 saves, .938

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY17112013232
COLCOL01141815534

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Backlund(12)SHG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +4 pts
    1-0
    14:19

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Frolik(10)
    M. Tkachuk (24), M. Backlund (28)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    2:41
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(29)PPG
    G. Landeskog (26), T. Barrie (32)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    8:24
  3. COL
    N. Zadorov(5)
    B. Comeau (13), C. Soderberg (15)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    9:32
  4. COL
    T. Barrie(7)
    M. Rantanen (39), N. MacKinnon (42)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    12:41
  5. COL
    M. Nieto(11)
    C. Soderberg (16), B. Comeau (14)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    18:42

3rd period

  1. COL
    D. Siemens(1)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.42
    2-5
    19:43

Penalties

CGY 33 PIM·COL 19 PIM

1st

  • 1:42CGYSean Monahan · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 9:09COLBlake Comeau · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 9:09CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 11:20COLBlake Comeau · Trippingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 14:09CGYTanner Glass · Fightingdrawn by Duncan Siemens5 min
  • 14:09COLDuncan Siemens · Fightingdrawn by Tanner Glass5 min
  • 14:09CGYTanner Glass · Chargingdrawn by Duncan Siemens2 min
  • 18:41CGYMichael Stone · Roughingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min

2nd

  • 7:42CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Holdingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 9:34CGYserved by M. Tkachuk · Bench2 min
  • 11:45COLNikita Zadorov · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 12:01CGYDougie Hamilton · Holdingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

3rd

  • 0:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 4:40COLDuncan Siemens · Cross checkingdrawn by Chris Stewart2 min
  • 6:49COLserved by C. Wilson · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:05COLBlake Comeau · High stickingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 8:05CGYJohnny Gaudreau · Misconduct10 min
  • 8:05CGYJohnny Gaudreau · Embellishment2 min
  • 17:03COLPatrik Nemeth · Interferencedrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCGY goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Zadorov, 2nd 9:32 — COL 34% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Siemens · Goal · xG 0.42C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14M. Nieto · Goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.08T. Barrie · Goal · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.04P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.04P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsCOL
2.22 G
All situations
4 G2.6
1.31 G
Even strength
3 G1.4
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY51%49%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsCOL
32
Shots on goal
34
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/5
Power play
1/7
33
Penalty minutes
19
16
Hits
13
5
Blocked shots
24
3
Giveaways
4
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000+150.17000—27:38
11M. BacklundC112+130.360007523:58
7T. BrodieD000-210.09100—22:46
24T. HamonicD000-210.02010—22:40
19M. TkachukL011050.46206—19:45
27D. HamiltonD000+120.13002—19:33
23S. MonahanC000-110.080025619:10
93S. BennettC000020.14200016:51
26M. StoneD000-120.21322—16:37
67M. FrolikR101-150.19010—15:50
13J. GaudreauL000-110.180112—14:40
36T. BrouwerR000-100.002005014:20
61B. KulakD000-130.03000—10:40
18M. StajanC000-110.151006710:12
77M. JankowskiL000-100.000004309:43
21G. HathawayR000-100.00500—08:56
8C. StewartR000-100.000005007:34
15T. GlassL000000.00007—06:22
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(L)33294.8792.16-1.8458:03

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).