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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV SUN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Scott Wilson's goal at 15:47 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.8 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 29, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Louis Domingue stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.1 goals below expected; Chad Johnson stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 2 A), 2. Scott Wilson (1 G), 3. Nikita Kucherov (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    S. Wilson1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL1141916329
BUFBUF19212212533

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    N. Baptiste(2)
    Z. Girgensons (5)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:25
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(22)PPG
    N. Kucherov (42), V. Hedman (30)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    13:23

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(12)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (24), E. Rodrigues (8)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    1:16
  2. TBL
    V. Namestnikov(19)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.32win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    13:19
  3. BUF
    S. Wilson(4)
    C. Nelson (3), V. Antipin (6)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    2-3
    15:47

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(18)PPG
    K. Okposo (25), R. Ristolainen (22)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    3:41
  2. TBL
    R. Callahan(3)
    M. Sergachev (22), B. Point (28)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    3-4
    11:36
  3. BUF
    S. Reinhart(13)EN
    R. O'Reilly (25)
    wristxG 0.55win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:52

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 12:10BUFScott Wilson · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 16:12BUFZemgus Girgensons · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 20:00TBLSlater Koekkoek · High stickingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

2nd

  • 2:07TBLserved by A. Erne · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 6:49BUFJohan Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Peca2 min
  • 6:56BUFZemgus Girgensons · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 2:21TBLJake Dotchin · Slashingdrawn by Benoit Pouliot2 min
  • 9:32BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Scott Wilson, 2nd 15:47 — BUF 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.55R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.43R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.24R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.19J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.18R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.18B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.17N. Baptiste · Goal · xG 0.16B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.15S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.13S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.13C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.11K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.05S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04S. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pouliot · On goal · xG 0.02S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pouliot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Josefson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pouliot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.00R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.02 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.91 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 2.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/5
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
14
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
8
5
Giveaways
3
2
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011050.28110—29:08
86N. KucherovR011-140.51100—23:47
21B. PointC011030.370205622:47
17A. KillornL000-110.0121010021:56
91S. StamkosC000-110.170005020:43
6A. StralmanD000-120.03010—19:10
9T. JohnsonC000020.100105017:37
37Y. GourdeC101+210.260005016:52
5D. GirardiD000-100.00110—16:41
24R. CallahanR101+220.20100—14:38
90V. NamestnikovC101020.512101414:23
59J. DotchinD000000.03012—14:23
55B. CoburnD000010.03210—14:14
98M. SergachevD011010.05210—12:09
63M. PecaC000-110.100006211:58
14C. KunitzL000-110.01000—10:24
73A. ErneL000-210.09200—09:37
29S. KoekkoekD000-110.09012—06:26
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70L. Domingue(L)32284.8752.85-1.1558:31

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).