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Red Wings at Islanders
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
6
New York Islanders
▸7
Final/OTTV FS-D+, MSG+·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-6 in overtime, Brock Nelson scoring at 3:15. The Islanders came back from three goals down. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 3:15 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.1 to 2.6; shots on goal were DET 39, NYI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 22 of 29 (.759), 3.9 goals below expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (3 G), 2. Mathew Barzal (5 A), 3. Henrik Zetterberg (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson3 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    M. Barzal5 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    H. Zetterberg1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET31401031401639
NYINYI081351612729

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    A. Mantha(17)
    H. Zetterberg (29), N. Kronwall (12)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:13
  2. DET
    M. Frk(10)
    T. Bertuzzi (8)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    5:12
  3. DET
    H. Zetterberg(7)
    G. Nyquist (10), M. Green (22)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    3-0
    14:40

2nd period

  1. NYI
    J. Eberle(19)
    M. Barzal (38)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    3-1
    9:36

3rd period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(12)
    T. Hickey (11), A. Pelech (12)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    3:02
  2. DET
    D. Helm(6)
    F. Nielsen (9), J. Abdelkader (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    7:42
  3. DET
    A. Mantha(18)PPG
    N. Kronwall (13), H. Zetterberg (30)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    5-2
    9:54
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(13)PPG
    M. Barzal (39)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    5-3
    14:34
  5. NYI
    A. Lee(29)PPG
    M. Barzal (40), J. Bailey (46)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +9 pts
    5-4
    15:28
  6. NYI
    N. Leddy(9)PPG
    J. Tavares (33), J. Eberle (23)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +42 pts
    5-5
    16:39
  7. NYI
    J. Bailey(14)PPG
    J. Tavares (34), M. Barzal (41)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +44 pts
    5-6
    18:11
  8. DET
    M. Green(6)
    H. Zetterberg (31), D. Larkin (32)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +46 pts
    6-6
    19:31

Overtime

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(14)
    M. Barzal (42)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +49 pts
    6-7
    3:15

Penalties

DET 19 PIM·NYI 9 PIM

1st

  • 15:58DETJustin Abdelkader · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

2nd

  • 1:40DETAndreas Athanasiou · Holding the stickdrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 3:49NYIThomas Hickey · Trippingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min
  • 18:39DETJustin Abdelkader · Fightingdrawn by Johnny Boychuk5 min
  • 18:39NYIJohnny Boychuk · Fightingdrawn by Justin Abdelkader5 min

3rd

  • 9:00NYIserved by M. Barzal · Too many men on the icedrawn by Danny DeKeyser2 min
  • 13:27DETTyler Bertuzzi · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalDET goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, OT 3:15 — NYI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.28A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.19B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.18B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.15A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.10J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.10J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Eberle · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.08C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.07A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06N. Leddy · Goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.05N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hickey · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.03N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chimera · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.00
NYI7 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsNYI
2.66 G
All situations
7 G3.1
2.25 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
0.41 G
Power play
4 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET42%58%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsNYI
39
Shots on goal
29
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
4/7
19
Penalty minutes
9
17
Hits
26
11
Blocked shots
15
6
Giveaways
21
8
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
83T. DaleyD000+210.00020—23:44
52J. EricssonD000+220.05300—23:04
71D. LarkinC011+130.050004622:50
25M. GreenD112030.10110—19:02
3N. JensenD000050.10030—18:30
65D. DeKeyserD000000.02000—18:09
40H. ZetterbergC134+240.210005618:03
55N. KronwallD022+120.03210—17:45
14G. NyquistR011+220.40110—17:03
51F. NielsenC011+100.001106716:59
43D. HelmC101+130.17000016:12
21T. TatarL000000.25000—16:09
39A. ManthaR202+240.42100—16:01
72A. AthanasiouC000040.38002015:06
8J. AbdelkaderL011+230.08407—14:19
41L. GlendeningC000-100.001105812:01
42M. FrkR101-130.36300—09:33
59T. BertuzziL011-100.00011010006:58
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(O)29227.7593.12-3.8862:32

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).