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Jets at Sabres
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸7
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN3·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-4. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikolaj Ehlers's goal at 1:26 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.7, BUF 2.8; shots on goal were WPG 37, BUF 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Steve Mason stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.2 goals below expected; Chad Johnson stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nikolaj Ehlers (2 G), 3. Jack Eichel (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG213313211737
BUFBUF19111214434

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    P. Laine(19)PPG
    B. Wheeler (37), K. Connor (13)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    6:43
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(16)
    K. Okposo (14), R. O'Reilly (17)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:51
  3. WPG
    D. Byfuglien(2)
    M. Perreault (12), T. Enstrom (3)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    15:40

2nd period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(18)
    M. Perreault (13), J. Morrissey (13)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    1:26
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(14)
    B. Wheeler (38), J. Trouba (14)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 pts
    4-1
    12:49
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers(19)PPG
    T. Myers (18), B. Little (18)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +3 pts
    5-1
    15:42
  4. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(11)PPG
    J. Eichel (22), K. Okposo (15)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +2 pts
    5-2
    18:42

3rd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(15)
    J. Trouba (15)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +1 pts
    6-2
    7:08
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(9)
    M. Scandella (12), R. O'Reilly (18)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    6-3
    8:31
  3. BUF
    J. Eichel(17)
    K. Okposo (16), R. Ristolainen (14)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +1 pts
    6-4
    14:53
  4. WPG
    J. Armia(7)EN
    A. Copp (10)
    wristxG 0.43
    7-4
    18:55

Penalties

WPG 6 PIM·BUF 18 PIM

1st

  • 4:47BUFBrendan Guhle · Hookingdrawn by Joel Armia2 min
  • 10:02WPGJacob Trouba · Hookingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

2nd

  • 13:26BUFJordan Nolan · Roughingdrawn by Marko Dano2 min
  • 13:26BUFJordan Nolan · Roughingdrawn by Marko Dano2 min
  • 13:26BUFJordan Nolan · Misconduct10 min
  • 17:27WPGToby Enstrom · Interferencedrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 19:03BUFEvander Kane · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Trouba2 min

3rd

  • 11:43WPGDmitry Kulikov · Slashingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWPG goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers, 2nd 1:26 — WPG 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.18J. Pominville · Goal · xG 0.16K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.16J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.16R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.15Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.15R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.08J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.07J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · Missed · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsBUF
2.76 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.94 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.42 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG41%59%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
34
60%
Faceoffs
40%
2/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
18
7
Hits
16
9
Blocked shots
7
3
Giveaways
3
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
33D. ByfuglienD101010.11000—21:32
44J. MorrisseyD011+210.02000—20:20
57T. MyersD011010.02000—20:10
8J. TroubaD022+220.02112—20:06
40J. ArmiaR101+160.9601010019:23
18B. LittleC011+230.220005318:42
5D. KulikovD000020.03032—17:34
29P. LaineL101030.13110—17:10
26B. WheelerR022020.050205617:08
85M. PerreaultC022+200.00200016:36
9A. CoppC011+130.180106116:29
81K. ConnorL213+130.36000—16:22
16S. MatthiasL000010.0000010016:08
27N. EhlersL202+250.27000—15:53
39T. EnstromD011000.00002—15:00
52J. RoslovicC000-110.09100009:49
15M. HendricksC000-110.012007108:40
56M. DanoC000-120.21000007:43
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35S. Mason(W)34304.8822.76-1.2460:00

Season series

WPG leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).