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Capitals at Avalanche
NHL

Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV NBCSWA, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Washington Capitals 6-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 19:53 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.1 to 2.5; shots on goal were WSH 30, COL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 22 of 28 (.786), 2.9 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Gabriel Landeskog (3 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 4 A), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    G. Landeskog3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 4 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH0141719230
COLCOL21018310628

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(6)
    N. MacKinnon (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:17
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(6)
    S. Girard (4), M. Rantanen (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    19:53

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Wilson(1)
    N. MacKinnon (12), M. Rantanen (10)
    backhandxG 0.30win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    12:25
  2. WSH
    B. Connolly(2)
    T. Wilson (4)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    18:36

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(7)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.37win prob +6 pts
    1-4
    4:59
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(6)PPG
    C. Soderberg (5), N. MacKinnon (13)
    wristxG 0.08
    1-5
    9:01
  3. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(4)PPG
    T. Oshie (6), J. Carlson (14)
    wristxG 0.18
    2-5
    13:11
  4. COL
    G. Landeskog(8)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (14), M. Rantanen (11)
    wristxG 0.12
    2-6
    19:34

Penalties

WSH 20 PIM·COL 18 PIM

1st

  • 17:12COLBlake Comeau · Boardingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

2nd

  • 0:32WSHJohn Carlson · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 6:25COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Brooks Orpik2 min
  • 6:25WSHBrooks Orpik · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 6:25COLErik Johnson · Roughingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 6:25WSHT.J. Oshie · Roughingdrawn by Erik Johnson2 min
  • 6:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 9:31COLNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min
  • 12:39WSHDevante Smith-Pelly · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 15:42COLBlake Comeau · Holdingdrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min

3rd

  • 2:43WSHNathan Walker · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 2:43WSHAlex Chiasson · Roughingdrawn by Nail Yakupov2 min
  • 2:43COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 2:43COLNikita Zadorov · Boardingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 2:43COLNail Yakupov · Roughingdrawn by Alex Chiasson2 min
  • 4:59WSHDmitry Orlov · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Gabriel Landeskog0 min
  • 8:36WSHAlex Chiasson · Slashingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 12:38COLNail Yakupov · Roughingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 16:11WSHMadison Bowey · Slashingdrawn by Colin Wilson2 min
  • 18:53WSHBrooks Orpik · Slashingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalWSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 1st 19:53 — COL 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.37C. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.30G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.13G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.11G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.11C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10N. Yakupov · Missed · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.08S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.06C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.05S. Andrighetto · Missed · xG 0.04S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.03S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.03S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.03B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsCOL
2.52 G
All situations
6 G3.1
1.61 G
Even strength
4 G1.6
0.91 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH39%61%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
28
64%
Faceoffs
36%
1/5
Power play
2/6
20
Penalty minutes
18
26
Hits
16
18
Blocked shots
19
4
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD011-110.04052—24:53
77T. OshieR011020.376127521:01
9D. OrlovD000000.04210—20:45
19N. BackstromC000030.290006318:24
2M. NiskanenD000-130.07010—17:56
44B. OrpikD000-210.01434—17:44
92E. KuznetsovC101-120.230028717:30
20L. EllerC000-130.172105317:10
8A. OvechkinL000-140.48200—16:49
22M. BoweyD000040.43002—16:41
18C. StephensonC000000.0010010016:09
4T. ChorneyD000020.02040—15:49
43T. WilsonR011-120.05220—13:29
39A. ChiassonR000000.00004—12:42
83J. BeagleC000000.000005012:42
25D. Smith-PellyR000-120.12402—12:02
10B. ConnollyR101010.17200—10:40
79N. WalkerL000-100.00102—08:43
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(L)28226.7863.10-2.9059:51

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).