Oilers at Islanders 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Edmonton Oilers

▸2

New York Islanders

Final/OTTV MSG+, TVAS·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the New York Islanders 2-1 in overtime, Connor McDavid scoring at 0:38. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 0:38 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.8 to 1.8; shots on goal were EDM 25, NYI 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G), 2. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jordan Eberle (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid1 G
★★
L. Draisaitl1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Eberle1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	013	19	02	11	225
NYI	013	111	013	00	137

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

L. Draisaitl(4)
M. Lucic (5)
wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
1-0
1:59
J. Eberle(5)
M. Barzal (11)
snapxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
1-1
4:43

Overtime

C. McDavid(6)
L. Draisaitl (7)
snapxG 0.09win prob +51 pts
2-1
0:38

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

7:27Anthony Beauvillier · Trippingdrawn by Matt Benning2 min
13:41Mark Letestu · Trippingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
18:44Casey Cizikas · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

11:19Darnell Nurse · Interferencedrawn by Nikolay Kulemin2 min
16:09Eric Gryba · Boardingdrawn by Nikolay Kulemin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, OT 0:38 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.8 xG · 31 att NYI

1 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.82 G
All situations: 1 G2.8; 1.32 G
Even strength: 1 G2.4; 0.50 G
Power play: 0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

32%68%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.79 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 37; 35%
Faceoffs: 65%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 21
Hits: 19; 10
Blocked shots: 15; 5
Giveaways: 15; 12
Takeaways: 11

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
97C. McDavidC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.15	0	0	0	36	24:28
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	0	4	0.13	1	1	2	—	22:19
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	5	2	0	—	22:16
19P. MaroonL	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	3	0	0	—	21:16
77O. KlefbomD	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	0	0	—	21:16
29L. DraisaitlC	1	1	2	+2	3	0.23	1	0	0	43	19:29
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	0	0	24	17:56
62E. GrybaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	17:52
4K. RussellD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	16:44
83M. BenningD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	15:57
27M. LucicL	0	1	1	0	3	0.11	1	2	0	—	15:16
44Z. KassianR	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	0	0	0	—	14:25
26I. PakarinenR	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	2	0	—	13:08
18R. StromeC	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	1	0	0	38	12:58
36J. JokinenL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	40	12:13
91D. CaggiulaL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	3	2	0	—	10:32
55M. LetestuC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	0	2	40	10:04
24B. MaloneC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	0	50	07:45

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33C. Talbot(W)	37	36	1	.973	2.80	+1.80	60:38

Season series

EDM leads 2-0

Nov 72@1OTthis game
Mar 81@2SOFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders

2nd period

Overtime

1st

2nd

Box score