NFL Playoff Odds
Who makes the playoffs? Every game left on the schedule is played out with our pregame win probability, the field is seeded the way the league seeds it, and the bracket is played through the Super Bowl — 10,000 times.
2026 seasonthrough 49 of 272 games played
Jacksonville Jaguars win the Super Bowl in 19% of simulated seasons and make the playoffs in 95%. Los Angeles Rams are 1-2 but make it 54% of the time — their scoring margin rates them better than their record.
American Football ConferenceAFC
| Team | Now | Proj W | Playoffs | Division | Bye | Conf. | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-1 | 11.7 | 95% | 86% | 29% | 32% | 19% |
 Buffalo Bills | 3-0 | 11.7 | 94% | 78% | 29% | 22% | 12% |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 3-0 | 11.2 | 90% | 67% | 21% | 17% | 8% |
 Baltimore Ravens | 2-1 | 10.0 | 71% | 45% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
 New England Patriots | 1-2 | 9.3 | 61% | 21% | 4% | 7% | 3% |
 Denver Broncos | 2-1 | 9.4 | 57% | 18% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 2-1 | 9.3 | 52% | 24% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 3-0 | 8.9 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
 Cleveland Browns | 3-1 | 8.8 | 39% | 18% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-2 | 8.4 | 32% | 13% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
 Indianapolis Colts | 1-2 | 8.2 | 30% | 9% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
 Houston Texans | 0-3 | 7.6 | 19% | 5% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
 New York Jets | 1-2 | 6.2 | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 0-3 | 5.7 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Miami Dolphins | 0-3 | 4.5 | <1% | <1% | — | <1% | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 0-3 | 4.3 | <1% | <1% | — | <1% | — |
National Football ConferenceNFC
| Team | Now | Proj W | Playoffs | Division | Bye | Conf. | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 3-0 | 11.8 | 93% | 56% | 34% | 25% | 14% |
 Minnesota Vikings | 3-0 | 11.3 | 89% | 56% | 24% | 15% | 7% |
 Seattle Seahawks | 2-1 | 11.2 | 87% | 36% | 20% | 24% | 13% |
 Chicago Bears | 2-1 | 10.2 | 71% | 24% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
 Detroit Lions | 2-1 | 9.8 | 62% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 2% |
 Los Angeles Rams | 1-2 | 9.3 | 54% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 3% |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 2-1 | 9.0 | 54% | 48% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
 Carolina Panthers | 1-2 | 7.7 | 38% | 35% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
 New Orleans Saints | 1-2 | 7.8 | 36% | 34% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
 New York Giants | 2-1 | 8.1 | 32% | 25% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
 Dallas Cowboys | 1-2 | 7.7 | 26% | 20% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
 Atlanta Falcons | 1-2 | 7.1 | 21% | 18% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-3 | 6.3 | 15% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Washington Commanders | 1-2 | 6.7 | 10% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Green Bay Packers | 1-2 | 7.0 | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona Cardinals | 1-2 | 6.1 | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
How this is simulated
Each remaining game is priced by our pregame model from the two clubs' power ratings and this week's home-field edge; neutral-site games get none. Future games carry no quarterback adjustment — who starts in week 15 is not known in week 4 — so every club is assumed to start its usual quarterback. A club's strength is held fixed within a simulated season, so the chances of a long shot are, if anything, understated.
Four division winners are seeds 1-4 and three wild cards are 5-7 in each conference; seed 1 alone gets the bye. Full NFL tiebreakers are approximated: ties are broken by winning percentage, then division record (within a division), then conference record, then point differential (today's plus our projected margin in each remaining game), then a coin flip. The league's head-to-head, common-games and strength-of-victory steps are not modelled. In the bracket the higher seed is at home until a neutral-site Super Bowl.
Proj W is average final wins. <1% means it happened in some simulations but fewer than one in a hundred; — means it never did. Numbers change only when a game goes final.