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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
· NBC· U.S. Bank Stadium

Market

Book
+1.5
o46.5
Exchange
Volume
contracts

Spreads are home-relative — negative means Minnesota Vikings is favoured.

Our projection

how the number is built
Model
-0.1
Vikings
Win prob
50%
Vikings
Likely range
-16 to 17
8 in 10 games
Rating gap
1516 − 1600 = -3.4 pts
Shrunk ×0.644
-2.2 pts
Home field
+2.25 pts
Projected margin
+0.1 Vikings

Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.

The matchup

form, ratings and the series
Lions
Away
Our rating
1600#9
FPI rank
#82026
Record
not started
Point diff
last season's rating
Vikings
Home
Our rating
1516#17
FPI rank
#192026
Record
not started
Point diff
last season's rating

Last 5 meetings

Vikings 2–3
  • 2025 wk 17Lions at Vikings1023Vikings
  • 2025 wk 9Vikings at Lions2724Vikings
  • 2024 wk 18Vikings at Lions931Lions
  • 2024 wk 7Lions at Vikings3129Lions
  • 2023 wk 18Vikings at Lions2030Lions

From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.

Order flow

Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.

Who has moved

No price history archived for this game.

Total

The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.

Notable trades

Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.

Resting size

No order book for this market right now.

DET @ MIN
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