New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers· NBC· SoFi Stadium
Market
- Book
- -1.5
- o45.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Los Angeles Chargers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +2.1
- Chargers
- Win prob
- 56%
- Patriots
- Likely range
- -19 to 14
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1541 − 1709 = -6.7 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -4.3 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -2.1 Chargers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
Patriots
Away
- Our rating
- 1709#2
- FPI rank
- #142026
- Record
- 0-1
- Point diff
- -3-3/g
Chargers
Home
- Our rating
- 1541#14
- FPI rank
- #42026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 3 meetings
Chargers 2–1- 2025 wk 19Chargers at Patriots3–16Patriots
- 2024 wk 17Chargers at Patriots40–7Chargers
- 2023 wk 13Chargers at Patriots6–0Chargers
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
No price history archived for this game.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.