Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay BuccaneersMarket
- Book
- -4.5
- o46.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Tampa Bay Buccaneers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -2.9
- Buccaneers
- Win prob
- 59%
- Buccaneers
- Likely range
- -14 to 19
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1454 − 1429 = +1.0 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +0.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +2.9 Buccaneers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1429#21
- FPI rank
- #262026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1454#19
- FPI rank
- #172026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Buccaneers 2–3- 2025 wk 15Falcons at Buccaneers29–28Falcons
- 2025 wk 1Buccaneers at Falcons23–20Buccaneers
- 2024 wk 8Falcons at Buccaneers31–26Falcons
- 2024 wk 5Buccaneers at Falcons30–36Falcons
- 2023 wk 14Buccaneers at Falcons29–25Buccaneers
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
No price history archived for this game.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.