New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
New England Patriots
Jacksonville JaguarsMarket
- Book
- -1.5
- o45.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Jacksonville Jaguars is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -2.1
- Jaguars
- Win prob
- 56%
- Jaguars
- Likely range
- -14 to 19
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1703 − 1709 = -0.2 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -0.2 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +2.1 Jaguars
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1709#2
- FPI rank
- #142026
- Record
- 0-1
- Point diff
- -3-3/g
- Our rating
- 1703#3
- FPI rank
- #152026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Jaguars 1–0- 2024 wk 7Patriots at Jaguars16–32Jaguars
From the 2024 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
consensus -1.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.