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Which teams are actually as good as their record? Every club ranked by the win percentage its runs scored and allowed should have produced, beside the record it did produce.

2026 seasonthrough 162 games

The Brewers lead on run differential (+214, a .636 Pythagorean win%). The Reds won 10 games more than their runs predict; the Tigers 13 fewer.

Pyth% is the expected win% from runs. Gap is actual wins minus Pythagorean wins — the distance between the record and the run differential, not a prediction that it closes.

#	Team	W-L	Win%	Pyth%	Pyth W-L	Gap	RS/G	RA/G	Diff	Exp
1	Brewers	103-59	.636	.636	103-59	-0.0	5.14	3.81	+214	1.88
2	Dodgers	100-62	.617	.631	102-60	-2.2	4.94	3.70	+201	1.86
3	Yankees	93-68	.578	.594	96-65	-2.6	4.59	3.73	+138	1.84
4	Cubs	89-73	.549	.590	96-66	-6.6	5.25	4.34	+147	1.91
5	Braves	94-68	.580	.578	94-68	+0.4	4.58	3.86	+116	1.84
6	Rays	98-64	.605	.557	90-72	+7.7	4.54	4.01	+86	1.85
7	Red Sox	87-75	.537	.554	90-72	-2.8	4.25	3.77	+78	1.82
8	Tigers	76-86	.469	.548	89-73	-12.7	4.46	4.02	+71	1.85
9	White Sox	84-78	.519	.535	87-75	-2.7	4.79	4.44	+56	1.89
10	Padres	91-71	.562	.527	85-77	+5.6	4.46	4.20	+41	1.86
11	Pirates	82-80	.506	.518	84-78	-1.9	4.73	4.56	+28	1.90
12	Phillies	88-74	.543	.510	83-79	+5.4	4.40	4.31	+15	1.86
13	Guardians	85-77	.525	.508	82-80	+2.8	4.19	4.12	+11	1.84
14	D-backs	86-76	.531	.506	82-80	+4.1	4.56	4.51	+9	1.88
15	Nationals	77-85	.475	.504	82-80	-4.6	5.07	5.03	+6	1.94
16	Marlins	80-82	.494	.502	81-81	-1.3	4.41	4.40	+3	1.87
17	Orioles	79-82	.491	.486	78-83	+0.7	4.46	4.59	-21	1.88
18	Cardinals	77-85	.475	.481	78-84	-1.0	4.44	4.62	-29	1.88
19	Astros	81-81	.500	.480	78-84	+3.3	4.53	4.73	-32	1.89
20	Mets	74-88	.457	.479	78-84	-3.6	4.31	4.51	-32	1.87
21	Rangers	80-82	.494	.469	76-86	+4.0	4.15	4.44	-46	1.85
22	Blue Jays	79-83	.488	.469	76-86	+3.1	4.00	4.28	-46	1.83
23	Twins	77-85	.475	.464	75-87	+1.8	4.56	4.92	-58	1.91
24	Mariners	76-86	.469	.461	75-87	+1.3	4.10	4.46	-58	1.85
25	Giants	65-97	.401	.441	71-91	-6.4	4.13	4.69	-91	1.87
26	Angels	62-100	.383	.436	71-91	-8.7	4.04	4.64	-97	1.86
27	Royals	69-93	.426	.425	69-93	+0.2	4.26	5.00	-120	1.89
28	Reds	75-87	.463	.400	65-97	+10.3	4.11	5.10	-160	1.89
29	Rockies	58-104	.358	.390	63-99	-5.2	4.64	5.83	-192	1.96
30	Athletics	64-98	.395	.361	59-103	+5.4	4.31	5.78	-238	1.94

How this is measured

Pythagenpat. Expected win% = RS^x / (RS^x + RA^x), where the exponent x = ((RS + RA) / games)^0.287. It rises with the run environment, so a run is worth a little less in a high-scoring park-and-era than in a low-scoring one. This season the exponent averages 1.88 (the Exp column).

What it cannot see. This is raw run differential. It is not adjusted for strength of schedule, for park, or for who was on the roster when the runs were scored — a team that traded for an ace in July carries its April runs all the same. Blowouts count fully. It is not our in-game model (see methodology), and it is not a forecast of any single game.

Records and runs from the MLB Stats API standings. Ties in Pythagorean win% are ordered by actual win%, then name.