Lower Seed at Higher Seed
Low––
High–Win probability
Higher Seed52%
Low 48%High 52%
First pitch hasn't been thrown yet — the fatigue tracker lights up once the game starts.
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.