Blue Jays at D-backs
TOR3–
AZ6Last play · Kazuma Okamoto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
TOR 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 3 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado homers (3) on a line drive to left field. (inning 4) — +16% D-backs
8Tim Tawa doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. James McCann scores.3–6
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Tyler Heineman scores.3–5
7Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Corbin Carroll scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd.2–5
7Jose Fernandez reaches on a throwing error by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.2–4
6Myles Straw homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
5Jose Fernandez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Myles Straw. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 2nd.1–3
5Corbin Carroll singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.1–2
4Nolan Arenado homers (3) on a line drive to left field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.