Blue Jays at D-backs
Last play · Alek Thomas flies out to left fielder Jesús Sánchez in foul territory.
Win probability
D-backs0%
TOR 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 10 – 1 AZ
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Nathan Lukes scores. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 1) — -21% Blue Jays
7Jorge Barrosa homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Ketel Marte scores.10–4
6Adrian Del Castillo doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Myles Straw. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.10–2
4Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.10–1
3Kazuma Okamoto homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.9–1
2James McCann singles on a line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.8–1
1Nathan Lukes doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Andrés Giménez scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Myles Straw scores.8–0
1Kazuma Okamoto doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Jesús Sánchez scores. Eloy Jiménez scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.5–0
1Eloy Jiménez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Alek Thomas. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Jesús Sánchez to 2nd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
