Blue Jays at D-backs
Last play · Ernie Clement strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
TOR 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (3) to left center field. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Alek Thomas scores. Ketel Marte scores. (inning 8) — +39% D-backs
8Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (3) to left center field. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Alek Thomas scores. Ketel Marte scores.2–6
6Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Eloy Jiménez scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.2–2
5Alek Thomas doubles (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jose Fernandez scores.1–2
1Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Corbin Carroll scores.1–1
1Jesús Sánchez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
