White Sox at D-backs
CWS7–
AZ11Last play · Colson Montgomery flies out sharply to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Win probability
D-backs100%
CWS 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 4 – 8 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Fernandez scores. Nolan Arenado scores. (inning 2) — +36% D-backs
7Geraldo Perdomo triples (3) on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Corbin Carroll scores.7–11
7Munetaka Murakami homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Miguel Vargas scores.7–10
6Nolan Arenado homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Jose Fernandez scores.5–10
6Andrew Benintendi grounds out, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Tristan Peters scores.5–8
4Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to center fielder Luisangel Acuña. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd.4–8
4Lourdes Gurriel Jr. flies out to right fielder Derek Hill. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.4–7
4Colson Montgomery homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.4–6
3Ildemaro Vargas homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Nolan Arenado scores.3–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.