Padres at D-backs
Last play · Luis Rengifo grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tim Tawa homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Ketel Marte scores. Adrian Del Castillo scores. (inning 4) — +30% D-backs
8Jorge Barrosa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Tim Tawa scores. James McCann to 3rd.1–5
8James McCann doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Nolan Arenado scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.1–4
7Luis Campusano singles on a ground ball to third baseman Nolan Arenado. Ty France scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Nolan Arenado.1–3
4Tim Tawa homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Ketel Marte scores. Adrian Del Castillo scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
