Pirates at D-backs
Last play · Marcell Ozuna strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
PIT 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas doubles (7) on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Corbin Carroll scores. (inning 1) — +9% D-backs
8Adrian Del Castillo singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Ketel Marte scores.0–9
8Ketel Marte singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Alek Thomas scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.0–8
6Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.0–7
6Ketel Marte reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Konnor Griffin. Alek Thomas scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.0–6
6Geraldo Perdomo doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Nolan Arenado scores. Gabriel Moreno scores. Alek Thomas to 3rd.0–5
6Gabriel Moreno doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.0–3
1Ildemaro Vargas doubles (7) on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Corbin Carroll scores.0–2
1Adrian Del Castillo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
