Giants at D-backs
Last play · Harrison Bader flies out to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SF 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 12 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado hits a grand slam (7) to left field. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 1) — +23% D-backs
5Nolan Arenado reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Willy Adames. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.2–12
5Ketel Marte singles on a ground ball to first baseman Rafael Devers. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.2–11
5Ryan Waldschmidt doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Jose Fernandez scores.2–10
5Gabriel Moreno homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Ildemaro Vargas scores.2–9
3Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.2–7
3Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Harrison Bader scores.2–5
2Ketel Marte out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Harrison Bader. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.1–5
2Willy Adames homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
