Mets at D-backs
Last play · MJ Melendez grounds out, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
NYM 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Waldschmidt doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Nolan Arenado scores. (inning 2) — +20% D-backs
6Ketel Marte triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.1–5
6Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a fly ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jorge Barrosa to 3rd.1–3
6Luis Torrens doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Carson Benge scores.1–2
2Ryan Waldschmidt doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Nolan Arenado scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
