Giants at D-backs
Last play · Harrison Bader strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SF 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 6 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ketel Marte homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. (inning 3) — +25% D-backs
5Geraldo Perdomo doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Will Brennan. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ketel Marte scores.3–6
5Ildemaro Vargas grounds out to first baseman Rafael Devers. Tim Tawa scores. Ryan Waldschmidt to 3rd. Ketel Marte to 2nd.3–4
4Drew Gilbert singles on a line drive to right fielder Jorge Barrosa. Matt Chapman scores. Daniel Susac to 2nd.3–3
3Ketel Marte homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.2–3
2Bryce Eldridge doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tim Tawa. Matt Chapman scores.2–1
1Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Ketel Marte scores.1–1
1Casey Schmitt homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
