Rockies at D-backs
Last play · Edouard Julien called out on strikes.
Win probability
D-backs100%
COL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 7 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Corbin Carroll scores. (inning 1) — +9% D-backs
8Chad Stevens out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jorge Barrosa. Jake McCarthy scores.1–9
6Corbin Carroll triples (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Ketel Marte scores.0–9
6Ketel Marte singles on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Tommy Troy scores.0–8
3Ryan Waldschmidt triples (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Ildemaro Vargas scores.0–7
2Geraldo Perdomo grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 2nd.0–6
2Ketel Marte hits a ground-rule double (10) on a line drive to left field. Aramis Garcia scores. Tommy Troy scores.0–5
2Aramis Garcia singles on a ground ball to left fielder Troy Johnston. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.0–3
1Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Corbin Carroll scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
