Rockies at D-backs
Last play · Hunter Goodman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
COL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 5 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 3) — +17% D-backs
8TJ Rumfield homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–5
6Sterlin Thompson grounds out, first baseman Ildemaro Vargas to pitcher Brandon Pfaadt. Troy Johnston scores.3–5
4Ketel Marte homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Tim Tawa scores.2–5
4Ezequiel Tovar grounds into a force out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to second baseman Ketel Marte. TJ Rumfield scores. Tyler Freeman to 3rd. Troy Johnston out at 2nd. Ezequiel Tovar to 1st.2–3
4Troy Johnston singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd. Tyler Freeman to 2nd.1–3
3Nolan Arenado doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.0–3
3Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
