Dodgers at D-backs
Last play · Pavin Smith grounds out, second baseman Alex Freeland to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
D-backs0%
LAD 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 2 AZ
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-218 / +178
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Shohei Ohtani scores. (inning 1) — -21% Dodgers
7Dalton Rushing challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Pavin Smith walks. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.6–5
7Nolan Arenado doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ryan Ward. Ketel Marte scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.6–4
7Mookie Betts singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.6–2
7Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Dalton Rushing scores.5–2
5Ketel Marte out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Jorge Barrosa scores.4–2
3Corbin Carroll homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
2Shohei Ohtani triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Dalton Rushing scores. Alex Freeland scores.4–0
1Freddie Freeman homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Shohei Ohtani scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
