Dodgers at D-backs
Last play · Will Smith flies out to center fielder Jorge Barrosa.
Win probability
D-backs100%
LAD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 0 AZ
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — +22% D-backs
8Ketel Marte homers (10) on a line drive to left field. Tommy Troy scores.1–4
7Nolan Arenado homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
6Tommy Troy homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
3Freddie Freeman grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Shohei Ohtani scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
