Nationals at D-backs
WSH6–
AZ1Last play · Nolan Arenado grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
D-backs0%
WSH 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 1 AZ
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Crews homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — -23% Nationals
9Keibert Ruiz reaches on a fielder's choice out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to third baseman Nolan Arenado. Daylen Lile scores. Nasim Nuñez out at 3rd.6–1
9Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Dylan Crews scores. Daylen Lile to 3rd.5–1
7Nasim Nuñez out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Juan Morillo to first baseman LuJames Groover. Jacob Young scores.4–1
7Dylan Crews homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
5LuJames Groover singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Pavin Smith scores. LuJames Groover to 3rd. LuJames Groover advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by center fielder Jacob Young.2–1
1Curtis Mead homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. James Wood scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.