Nationals at D-backs
Last play · Dylan Crews called out on strikes.
Win probability
D-backs100%
WSH 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno homers (4) on a line drive to left field. Tommy Troy scores. (inning 5) — +18% D-backs
7Pavin Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.1–5
5Gabriel Moreno homers (4) on a line drive to left field. Tommy Troy scores.1–4
4Diamondbacks challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Ryan Waldschmidt grounds into a force out, shortstop CJ Abrams to second baseman José Tena. Nolan Arenado scores. Pavin Smith out at 2nd. Ryan Waldschmidt to 1st.1–2
2CJ Abrams homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Corbin Carroll homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
