Nationals at D-backs
WSH14–
AZ1Last play · Aramis Garcia strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
D-backs0%
WSH 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 7 – 1 AZ
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. James Wood scores. (inning 1) — -21% Nationals
9Jorbit Vivas singles on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Troy. Curtis Mead scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd. Daylen Lile to 2nd.14–1
8Dylan Crews hit by pitch. Curtis Mead scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.13–1
6CJ Abrams homers (13) on a line drive to right center field.12–1
6Luis García Jr. hits a grand slam (7) to center field. Drew Millas scores. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood scores.11–1
5Daylen Lile homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.7–1
3Aramis Garcia homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.6–1
3Jorbit Vivas doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. CJ Abrams scores. Daylen Lile scores.6–0
3Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. José Tena scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.