Angels at D-backs
Last play · Denzer Guzman grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman LuJames Groover.
Win probability
D-backs100%
LAA 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 1 – 8 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (13) to right field. Tommy Troy scores. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 2) — +31% D-backs
5Ketel Marte doubles (15) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jordan Lawlar scores.1–8
3Tommy Troy singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jose Siri. Jordan Lawlar scores.1–6
2Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (13) to right field. Tommy Troy scores. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.1–5
2Tommy Troy triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Jose Siri. Ildemaro Vargas scores.1–1
1Zach Neto homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
