Twins at D-backs
Last play · Kody Clemens flies out sharply to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
Win probability
D-backs100%
MIN 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 5 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach, deflected by shortstop Tristan Gray. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd. (inning 5) — +25% D-backs
8Corbin Carroll triples (9) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Tommy Troy scores. Pavin Smith scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.5–9
8Royce Lewis homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.5–6
8Josh Bell homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.4–6
6Ketel Marte homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.3–6
5Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach, deflected by shortstop Tristan Gray. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.3–5
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounds into a force out, shortstop Tristan Gray to second baseman Luke Keaschall. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno out at 2nd. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 1st.3–3
5Gabriel Moreno reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Brooks Lee. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.3–2
4Tristan Gray singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jordan Lawlar. Brooks Lee scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
