Twins at D-backs
MIN16–
AZ8Last play · LuJames Groover flies out to left fielder Austin Martin.
Win probability
D-backs0%
MIN 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 16 – 2 AZ
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Trevor Larnach scores. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 3rd. (inning 1) — -21% Twins
8Geraldo Perdomo grounds out, third baseman Brooks Lee to first baseman Royce Lewis. Jorge Barrosa scores. Tommy Troy to 3rd. Tim Tawa to 2nd.16–8
7Pavin Smith singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Ildemaro Vargas scores.16–7
7Ildemaro Vargas doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Jorge Barrosa scores. Tommy Troy scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.16–6
7Geraldo Perdomo walks. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Jorge Barrosa to 3rd. Tommy Troy to 2nd.16–3
5Jorge Barrosa homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Adrian Del Castillo scores.16–2
5Ryan Kreidler triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Victor Caratini scores. Luke Keaschall scores.16–0
5Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Josh Bell scores. Brooks Lee scores.14–0
5Byron Buxton hits a grand slam (24) to right center field. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Kreidler scores. Trevor Larnach scores.12–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.